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Market Summary - Wednesday 17th April 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Excellent rains in south west Russia prompted ag markets to take another look at this year’s production picture and then put those selling boots back on. Wheat made the largest losses, followed closely by soybeans and to a lesser extend corn. The AUD is unchanged this morning at 0.7166.

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

May 19 (K)

445.00

-14.50

$228.18

-7.30

417.00

-10.25

527.25

-4.50

July 19 (N)

448.50

-14.75

$229.97

-7.43

422.50

-11.00

530.50

-4.50

Sept 19 (U)

456.50

-14.75

$234.07

-7.43

432.25

-11.75

537.00

-5.25

Dec 19 (Z)

474.25

-14.00

$243.17

-7.04

455.50

-11.75

551.75

-5.25

 

  • There is a saying ‘there’s nothing bullish about fresh contract lows’ and that is especially true if your largest competitor is making them. Good rains in south west Russia are thought to have reached at least 60% of their cropping area and in response Black Sea futures were pressured lower overnight and US wheat had no choice but to follow.
  • US wheat futures will be restricted to only the occasional bounce from here on out if we do not see a major reduction to global supply.
  • A German Co-op has predicted that this year’s wheat crop will reach 24.4mmt, a rebound of 20% after drought reduced last year’s crop. Germany is the second largest wheat producer in the EU behind France.
  • Recent floods in Iran have been blamed for the 6.5% reduction to this year’s crop forecast, although the minister warned the crop would still cover domestic demand.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

May 19 (K)

359.00

-3.75

July 19 (N)

367.75

-3.75

Sept 19 (U)

376.00

-3.50

Dec 19 (Z)

387.50

-3.25

 

  • Try as it might corn couldn’t completely shake the heat from wheat and soybeans and settled 3.75c/bu lower.
  • Dr Cordonnier says that ‘the South American corn crop keeps getting bigger and bigger’. He now expects the region to produce 149.3mmt, an increase of 29.9% from last year. He predicts 96.5mmt of corn will be produced in Brazil, and for 48mmt to come from Argentina (up 2mmt and 1mmt respectively).

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

Contract

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (€/t)

May 19 (K)

888.00

-10.75

May 19 (K)

454.50

-1.20

May 19 (K)

359.75

-1.50

July 19 (N)

901.75

-10.75

July 19 (N)

462.20

-1.50

August 19 (Q)

362.50

-1.25

August 19 (Q)

907.50

-10.50

Nov 19 (X)

473.90

-1.10

Nov 19 (X)

366.00

-1.25

 

  • Wheat encouraged soybeans to take a reality check and with no updates on the trade deal, a substantial amount of unsold stock, ASF hurting global demand and South American soybeans coming online it’s no surprise futures dropped nearly 11c/bu lower.
  • Dr Cordonnier has again increased his Brazilian soybean estimate by 1mmt to 116mmt, while adding the same to his Argentinean estimate (now 56mmt).
  • Significant pressure from US soybeans caused ICE canola and MATIF rapeseed to move lower in sympathy.
  • German rapeseed production is expected to fall by 11% to 3.24mmt after dryness reduced the area sown. Germany is usually the largest rapeseed producer in the EU.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7166

-0.0004

AUDCAD

0.9578

-0.0019

AUDEUR

0.6350

+0.0007

CRUDE (K)

64.05

+0.65

 

  • A relatively quiet night for currency markets saw the AUD hold steady at yesterday’s levels.
  • Today we will again be looking to China for direction, this time as data on GDP, industrial production and retail sales is released.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WN9 - WK9

3.50

-0.25

KWK9 - WK9

-28.00

+4.25

MWK9 - WK9

82.25

+10.00

WU9 - WN9

11.50

-0.25

KWN9 - WN9

-26.00

+3.75

MWN9 - WN9

82.00

+10.25

WZ9 - WK9

11.50

-0.25

KWU9 - WU9

-24.25

+3.00

MWU9 - WU9

80.50

+9.50

WK9 - CK9

86.00

-10.75

KWK9 - CK9

58.00

-6.50

MWK9 - CK9

168.25

-0.75

 

Have a great day!

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