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Market Summary - Wednesday 23rd of January 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Mixed results overnight; corn and soybeans suffered at the hand of souring trade talks between China and the US while wheat managed to move marginally higher due to the current focus on Russian exports.  The AUD has fallen to 0.7128 this morning.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Mar 19 (H)

521.25

+3.50

$268.74

+2.96

509.75

+3.75

572.00

-2.25

May 19 (K)

527.00

+3.50

$271.70

+2.97

518.75

+3.50

576.50

-2.50

July 19 (N)

532.75

+4.00

$274.66

+3.24

528.25

+3.75

583.00

-2.50

Sept 19 (U)

541.25

+4.50

$279.05

+3.52

540.00

+3.25

590.00

-2.25

 

  • Wheat initially rallied to climb above recent highs before weakness in soybeans saw values shed 10c. End result was only marginally higher in Kansas and Chicago.
  • Support for Chicago is mainly due to higher Russian FOB prices and limited offers beyond February.
  • Following an impressive start to the season where 11.4mmt of wheat has been exported so far, Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reportedly asked exporters to submit their plans for the rest of the marketing year – are restrictions looming there as well?
  • CBH Group have estimated that about 2mmt of grain will be shipped from WA to the East Coast over two years thanks to demand generated by the drought.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Mar 19 (H)

379.00

-2.75

May 19 (K)

387.25

-2.75

July 19 (N)

395.00

-2.25

Sept 19 (U)

397.00

-2.75

 

  • Corn continues to be at the mercy of market sentiment surrounding trade negotiations with China. ‘Concerns’ were the main theme of discussions overnight which caused values to fall.
  • The forecast for Brazil looks unlikely to change with showers in the deep south leaving central and northern areas void of much needed rains which is worrisome for their Safrinha crop.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Mar 19 (H)

909.25

-7.50

485.50

+2.90

Feb 19   (G)

371.75

-1.50

May 19 (K)

922.75

-7.25

493.50

+2.90

May 19 (K)

373.50

+4.25

July 19 (N)

922.75

-7.25

493.50

+2.90

August 19 (Q)

369.75

+0.50

 

  • Like corn, soybeans fell amidst negative comments about US/China trade talks. When news broke that the US were refusing to engage in lower level trade talks soybeans plummeted before recovering roughly 10c after the high level talks scheduled for next week were re-confirmed.
  • ICE Canola broke away from CBOT soybeans to move higher on the back of weakness in the CAD.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7128

-0.0030

AUDCAD

0.9519

-0.0003

AUDEUR

0.6272

+0.0005

CRUDE (H)

53.01

-1.03

 

  • The AUD continues to be sensitive to ongoing geopolitical tensions and global growth conditions.
  • Comments from China overnight were interpreted as a signal that they’re concerned not only about the financial but also the social implications of a slowing economy.  
  • News that the US will pursue the extradition of the CEO of Huawei Technologies from Canada were deemed as a negative turn in trade negotiations. This is on top of the rejection by the US to engage in lower level talks ahead of next week’s high level negotiations.

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WK9 - WH9

5.75

0.00

KWH9 - WH9

-11.50

+0.25

MWH9 - WH9

50.75

-5.75

WN9 - WH9

11.50

+0.50

KWK9 - WK9

-8.25

0.00

MWK9 - WK9

49.50

-6.00

WU9 - WH9

11.50

+0.50

KWN9 - WN9

-4.50

-0.25

MWN9 - WN9

50.25

-6.50

WH9 - CH9

142.25

+6.25

KWH9 - CH9

130.75

+6.50

MWH9 - CH9

193.00

+0.50

 

Have a great day!

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